Why Are Traffic Fatalities Dropping?

Robert B. Reich
Marketplace, August 20, 2008

Some good news amid all the bleak economic indicators : traffic deaths in
the United States reached their lowest level in more than a decade last
year, according to a new report from the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration.

So what are we doing right? Some point to safer cars, but that can't be a
major explanation. Cars on our roads last year weren't all that much safer
than they were the year before. Basically, they were the same cars because
sales of new cars plummeted.

Some hypothesize that our roads have become safer, but there's no particular
evidence of this, either. The engineers who design and build them do a fine
job, but our roads didn't suddenly improve. In fact, too many of America's
highways are literally falling apart for lack of adequate maintenance. One
major bridge even caved in.

Some think the drop in highway fatalities is due to drivers being more
careful -- buckling their seatbelts, obeying traffic laws. That would be
nice if it were true, but here too the evidence is weak. Seatbelt laws have
been in effect in most states for years. If anything, we're less careful.
Many of us behind the wheel are paying less attention to driving and more to
chattering on cell phones, fiddling with i-pods and blackberries, and
adjusting global positioning devices.

And more of us are driving
motorcycles, accounting for a growing number of highway deaths.

So what's the explanation? It's the economy, stupid. When the economy tanks,
as it began to do last year, fewer people are on t he road. It's not just
the high gas prices. The same pattern can be seen in other major downturns.
When unemployment rises, fewer people commute to work. When incomes fall,
fewer people drive to the malls or to movies and restaurants because they
have less money to spend. And fewer people on the road mean fewer highway
accidents and deaths.

The last time we saw this big a drop in highway deaths was 1991, which was
also the last time we experienced this big a plunge in our economy. Highway
fatalities rose again in the mid 90s as the economy revived. Given how the
economy is now going, 2008 will probably turn out to be among the safest
years on record.